Damages to Resources, minerals and fossil fuels, are expressed as surplus energy for the future mining of resources [Müller Wenk 1998]. Minerals For minerals geostatistical models are used that relate availability of a resource to its concentration.  The relation between the availability of resources and the ore grade on a logarithmic scale for a number of minerals. A steep line indicates that the availability increases sharply if mankind is able and willing to accept a slightly lower ore concentration. A flat line means that even at lower concentrations, the availability will not increase very much. The latter case is more problematic than the first. [Taken from Chapman 83] Fossil Fuels For fossil fuels surplus energy is based on the future use of oil shale and tar sands.  The discovery rate of liquid oil has dropped ton average of about 6 Gigabarrel per year, while the extraction is almost tenfold. The so-called giant fields have all been discovered during the fifties, sixties and seventies. The present knowledge of geology is so well developed that it is unlikely that many new giant fields can be found [Campbell 1998]. Back |
